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These are new product announcements from my main website (Open 24/7/365). We have a life-time warranty / guarantee on all products. (Includes parts and labor). Here you will find a variety of cutting-edge Surveillance and Security-Related products and services. (Buy/Rent/Layaway) Post your own comments and concerns related to the specific products or services mentioned or on surveillance, security, privacy, etc.

Saturday, April 30, 2016

Central Bankers Are Completely Dumbfounded!




Central Bankers Are Completely Dumbfounded!







Efforts by many of the world’s central banks to weaken their currencies are failing, raising concerns about whether policy makers are losing the ability to wield control over financial markets.
This was the case again in Japan on Thursday, when the dollar fell 1.1% against yen, to ¥111.39.





These Idiots Are Trying To Convince Us That The Ball-of-String Isn't Unravelling!


Despite the Bank of Japan’s efforts to push down its currency and jump-start the economy with negative interest rates, the yen is up 8% this year and is at its strongest level against the dollar since October 2014. European central bankers are having similar problems containing the strength of the euro and other currencies.





These difficulties are a reminder that the long stretch of exceptionally low rates in response to the 2008 financial crisis has created market distortions that may be difficult for central bankers to contain.

This disconnect could produce more volatility in financial markets. Even if investors can predict what actions central banks are likely to take, they are having a hard time predicting how markets will react, potentially sparking a pullback from riskier assets, such as emerging markets or commodities.




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It also underscores long-standing concerns about the prospects for global growth. A number of central bankers are reaching for the lever of lower interest rates to weaken their currency and make their exports more competitive. But because policy makers are all following the same approach, they are in effect canceling each other out.
“There is a rising concern that central banks are testing the limits of their policies,” said Brian Daingerfield, a currency strategist at RBS Securities. “Each time you take a tool out of the tool kit, it gets closer to being empty.”







The European Central Bank has struggled with its efforts to weaken the euro, which gained 0.8% against the dollar on Thursday. Last week, the ECB cut interest rates further into negative territory, yet the currency is up 4.2% this year.
Even some central banks with less actively traded currencies are having a hard time guiding markets. Norway’s central bank on Thursday cut its main interest rate to a record low of 0.5%, and a bank governor said he wouldn’t rule out negative rates, in which central banks charge big lenders to hold deposits. The Norwegian krone gained more than 1% against the dollar and was up against the euro.







Lower interest rates in the past have had the effect of making a currency less attractive to hold as investors seek out higher-yielding assets.
Unlike its peers, the Federal Reserve is still able to produce more predictable results. After the Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the central bank wasn’t going to raise rates as swiftly as it had anticipated, the dollar fell against most major currencies, as expected.







It wasn’t that long ago that actions, or even the hint of future action, from most of the major central banks had a powerful effect on their currencies.
Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised unprecedented monetary easing upon taking office in late 2012, looking to kick-start growth and spur inflation. Mr. Abe’s handpicked head of the Bank of Japan flooded the economy with cash by kicking off a bond-buying program. The yen fell 37% against the dollar from October 2012 to June 2015.







Central bankers also used policy or moral suasion to strengthen their currencies. In 2012, Greece suffered the largest government debt default in history, leading many analysts to question the future of the European monetary union. ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro. His determination soothed investors and stopped the single currency’s tailspin, boosting it to an 11% gain against the buck in six months.
But as the long period of rock-bottom rates continued, that influence has looked like it is fading. While the ECB’s initial move to cut interest rates into negative territory in June 2014 sparked a sharp plunge in the euro, further cuts last December and last week have had little effect on the currency.
“The ECB’s hand has been played out,” said Alan Ruskin, head of G-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank AG. “The currency market isn’t as responsive to the ECB anymore.”
Similarly, markets have ignored the Bank of Japan’s hints at its monetary-policy meeting this week of more rate cuts to come. Not only has the mechanism transmitting ultraloose policy into the real economy appeared to be broken, but some unconventional policy tools—such as negative interest rates—have been deleterious to banks and rattled financial markets.





“Banks get squeezed and savers are inadvertently encouraged to hoard cash or, worse, encourage bubbles by forcing money away from the safety of government debt and into other markets regardless of fundamentals,” saidAnthony Cronin, Treasury bond trader at Société Générale SA.
A number of government bonds are yielding below zero in places like Japan, the eurozone and Switzerland. Money managers said this has added to concerns that central banks are distorting the normal market function and that investors are finding it difficult to fairly value financial assets.
Analysts said central banks need to pay attention to the unintended fallout on markets and banks from tools such as negative interest rates. Mr. Draghi signaled hesitance to cut rates deeper into negative territory this month, while Ms. Yellen said this week that Fed officials aren’t “actively considering negative rates.”
Still, some market participants warn it may be too early to judge whether central-bank policies are losing effectiveness.









Donald Ellenberger, head of multisector strategies at Federated Investors,which had $350 billion in assets under management at the end of December, said central banks “have proven remarkably creative devising ways to use monetary policy to try to stimulate the economy.”
He cited the latest stimulus from the ECB on March 10, with the central bank adding nonfinancial corporate debt to their bond-buying list. The move has fueled a rally in corporate bonds and sent yields falling, which helps lower corporate borrowing cost.


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“Central banks are experimenting in real time,” he said. “There is no lab for them to practice in.”

Former Fed Adviser Proposes Change At The Federal Reserve


A former Federal Reserve adviser is joining with an activist group to argue for overhauls at the central bank that they say would distance it from Wall Street and make its activities more transparent and accountable to the public.

Dartmouth College economics professor Andrew Levin, special adviser to then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke between 2010 to 2012, is pressing for the overhaul with Fed Up coalition activists. Many of the proposed changes target the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, which are quasi-private and technically owned by commercial banks in their respective districts.
“A lot of people would be stunned to know” the extent to which the Federal Reserve is privately owned, Mr. Levin said. The Fed “should be a fully public institution just like every other central bank” in the developed world, he said in a conference call announcing the plan. He described his proposals as “sensible, pragmatic and nonpartisan.”



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The former central bank staffer said he sees his ideas as designed to maintain the virtues the central bank already brings to the table. They aren’t targeted at changing how policy is conducted today. “What’s important here is that reform to the Federal Reserve can last for 100 years, not just the near term,” he said.
That said, what is being sought by Mr. Levin and the activists is significant and would require congressional action. Ady Barkan, who leads the Fed Up campaign, said the Fed’s current structure “is an embarrassment to America” and Fed leaders haven’t been “willing or able” to make changes.








A Federal Reserve spokesman declined to address the proposal.
Mr. Levin wants the 12 regional Fed banks to be brought fully into the government. He also wants the process of selecting new bank presidents—they are key regulators and contributors in setting interest-rate policy—opened up more fully to public input, as well as term limits for Fed officials.
Mr. Levin’s proposal was made in conjunction with the Center for Popular Democracy’s Fed Up coalition, a group that has been pressuring the central bank for more accountability for some time. The left-leaning group has been critical of the structure of the regional banks, and has been pressing the Fed to hold off on raising rates in a bid to make sure the recovery is enjoyed not just by the wealthy, in their view.






The proposal was revealed on a conference call that also included a representative from Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign, although all campaigns were invited to participate.
Mr. Levin says the members of the regional Fed bank boards of directors, the majority of whom are selected by the private banks with the approval of the Washington-based governors, should be chosen differently. The professor says director slots now reserved for financial professionals regulated by the Fed should be eliminated, and that directors who oversee and advise the regional banks should be selected in a public process involving the Washington governors and local elected officials. These directors also should better represent the diversity of the U.S.

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Mr. Levin also wants formal public input into the selection of new bank presidents, with candidates’ names known publicly and a process that allows for public comment in a way that doesn’t now exist. The professor also wants all Fed officials to serve for single seven-year terms, which would give them the needed distance from the political process while eliminating situations where some policy makers stay at the bank for decades. Alan Greenspan, for example, was Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006.
With multiple vacancies in recent years, the selection of regional bank presidents has become a hot-button issue. Currently, the leaders of the New York, Philadelphia, Dallas and Minneapolis Fed banks are helmed by men who formerly worked for or had close connections to investment bank Goldman Sachs.
Mr. Levin called for watchdog agency the Government Accountability Office to annually review and report on Fed operations, including the regional Fed banks. He also wants the regional Fed banks to be covered under the Freedom of Information Act. A regular annual review hopefully would insulate the effort from perceptions of political interference, Mr. Levin said.

Pushing-On-A-String


There's a long-standing metaphor in monetary policy that the central bank "can't push on a string." It means that while a central bank can certainly slow down an economy or even drive an economy into recession with an ill-timed or too-large increase interest rates, the power of monetary policy is not symmetric.  When a central bank reduces interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy, it may not make much difference if banks don't think it's a good time to lend or firms and consumers don't think it's a good time to borrow. In other words, monetary policy is like a string with which a central bank can "pull" back the economy, but pushing on a string just crumples the string.

The "can't push on a string" metaphor appears in many  intro-level economics texts. It has also gotten a heavy work-out these last few years as people have sought to understand why either economic output or inflation wasn't stimulated more greatly by having the Federal Reserve's target interest rate (the "federal funds" rate) near zero percent for going on seven years now, especially when combined with "forward guidance" promises that this policy would continue into the future and a couple trillion dollars of direct Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities.

The first use of "pushing on a string" in a monetary policy context may have occurred in hearings before House Committee on Banking and Currency on March 18, 1935, concerning the proposed Banking Act of 1935. Marriner Eccles, who was appointed Chairman of the Fed in 1934 and served on the Board of Governors until 1951, was taking questions from Rep. Thomas Alan Goldsborough (D-MD) and Prentiss M. Brown (D-MI). The hearings are here; the relevant exchange is on p. 377, during a discussion of what the Fed might be able to do to end deflation.


Governor Eccles: Under present circumstances there is very little, if anything, that can be done.
Mr. Goldsborough: You mean you cannot push a string.

Governor Eccles: That is a good way to put it, one cannot push a string. We are in the depths of a depression and, as I have said several times before this committee, beyond creating an easy money situation through reduction of discount rates and through the creation of excess reserves, there is very little, if anything that the reserve organization can do toward bringing about recovery. I believe that in a condition of great business activity that is developing to a point of credit inflation monetary action can very effectively curb undue expansion.
Mr. Brown: That is a case of pulling the string.
Governor Eccles: Yes. Through reduction of discount rates, making cheap money and creating excess reserves, there is also a possibility of stopping deflation,  particularly if that power is used combined with this broadening of eligibility requirement.

Later in the hearings, several other speakers refer back to the "push on a string" comment, which clearly had some resonance. Although I have seen the "can't push on a string" metaphor attributed to John Maynard Keynes in a number of places, I haven't seen an actual primary source where Keynes used the phrase.





Your questions and comments are greatly appreciated.



Monty Henry, Owner














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